Working Papers

All working papers should acknowledge the support of the National Institute on Aging: NIA, R37-AG025488 and NIA, R01-AG025247.

It is requested by the NIH that publications resulting from supported research, whether full or in part, be submitted to the NIH National Library of Medicine's (NLM) PubMed Central (PMC). This policy applies only to peer-reviewed research publications. Upon acceptance for publication, submission of an electronic version of the author's final manuscript is requested. Further details can be found on the NIH webpage at: NIH Public Access Policy

2017 Working Papers


Latif Dramani, Oumy Laye, and Sene Ndeye Sokhor, 2017, "Arbitrage marché du travail et marché domestique" WP17-03

Abstract WP17-03

Pamela Jiménez-Fontana, 2017, "Challenges to increase female labor force participation: Gender inequality in Costa Rica" WP17-02

Abstract WP17-02
pending Ana Šeme, Lili Vargha, Tanja Istenič, and Jože Sambt, 2017, "The patterns of non monetary transfers in Europe: A historical NTTA analysis by age and gender." Abstract WP17-01

2016 Working Papers


Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, Diana Stojanovic, Michael Abrigo, Syud Amer Ahmed, 2016 “Aging and the changing nature of intergenerational flows: Policy Challenges and responses”


Abstract WP16-05

Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, Diana Stojanovic, Michael Abrigo, Syud Amer Ahmed, 2016, “The Impact of Population Aging on Public and Private Economic Flows”


Abstract WP16-04

Cassio M. Turra, Bernardo L. Queiroz, and Andrew Mason, 2016 “New Estimates of Intergenerational Public Transfers for Brazil: 1996-2011”


Abstract WP16-03

Suphannada Lowhachai, Sang-Hyop Lee, Tanisa Tawichsri 2016 “Population Aging and Fiscal Sustainability in Thailand: The National Transfer Accounts (NTA) Approach”


Abstract WP16-02

M.R. Narayana. Demographic transition, public expenditure on education and economic growth: New macroeconomic evidence from India


Abstract WP16-01

2015 Working Papers


Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, Diana Stojanovic, Michael Abrigo,2015, The fiscal Impact of Population Aging: Accounting for the Role of Demography.


Abstract WP15-03

Gemma Abio, Concepcio Patxot, Elisenda Renteria, and Guadalupe Souto. Generational accounts for Spain 2005.


Abstract WP15-02

Bernhard Hammer. 2015. National Transfer Accounts by Education: Austria 2010. AGENTA Working Paper 2/2015.


Abstract WP15-01

2014 Working Papers


Eugenia Amporfu, Daniel Sakyi, Prince Boakye Frimpong. 2014. Demographic Dividend of Ghana: The National Transfer Accounts Approach.

Amporfu 2014

Abstract WP14-02

Bernhard Hammer. 2014. The Economic Life Course: An Examination Using National Transfer Accounts, PhD Dissertation.

Hammer 2014

Abstract WP14-01

2013 Working Papers


Morne Oosthuizen. 2013. Maximising South Africa's Demographic Dividend


Abstract WP13-01

2012 Working Papers


Olaniyan, Olanrewaju, Adedoyin Soyibo and Akanni O Lawanson. 2012. Who finances youth consumption in the context of high youth unemployment? Evidence for Nigeria using overlapping generations model. OlaniyanetalWPNov2012

Abstract WP12-02

Andrew Mason and Ron Lee. 2012. Demographic Dividends and Aging in Lower-Income Countries.


Abstract WP12-01

2011 Working Papers


Holger Bonin and Concepcio Patxot. 2008. Cyclically Neutral Generational Accounting.


Abstract WP11-01

2010 Working Papers


Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Daniel Cotlear. 2010. Some economic consequences of global aging.


Abstract WP10-010

David Bloom, Jocelyn Finlay, Salal Humair, Andrew Mason, Olanrewaju Olaniyan, Adedoyin Soyibo. 2010. Prospects for Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective. BFHMOS2010

Abstract WP10-09

Adedoyin Soyibo, Olanrewaju Olaniyan, and Akanni O. Lawanson. 2010. The structure of generational public transfer flows in Nigeria, 2004. SOL2010

Abstract WP10-08

Andrew Mason, Olanrewaju Olaniyan, and Adedoyin Soyibo. 2010. Population and Economic Progress in Nigeria. MOS2010

Abstract WP10-07
WP10-06 Abstract WP10-06

Miguel Sanchez Romero, Concepcion Patxot, Elisenda Renteria, and Guadalupe Souto. 2010. From Transfers to Capital: Analyzing the Spanish Demand for Wealth using NTA. RPRS2010

Abstract WP10-05

Patxot, Concepció, Elisenda Renteria, Miguel Romero, and Guadalupe Souto. How Intergenerational Transfers Finance Lifecycle Deficit in Spain. PRRS2010

Abstract WP10-04

Vaittinen, Risto, and Reijo Vanne. 2010. National Transfer Accounts for Finland in 2004. VV2010

Abstract WP10-03

Andrew Mason and Ronald Lee, 2010, Introducing Age into National Accounts. Vol I C3

Abstract WP10-02

Edwards, Ryan D. 2010. Forecasting Government Revenue and Expenditure in the U.S. Using Data on Age-Specific Utilization. E2010

Abstract WP10-01

2009 Working Papers


Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, Gretchen Donehower, Sang-Hyop Lee, Tim Miller, An-Chi Tung, and Amonthep Chawal, 2009, National Transfer Accounts Manual, V 1.0. NTA Manual V1 Draft

Abstract WP09-08

Qian, Wenlan. 2009. Generational Accounts for Public Education in the US: Historical and Projected. Q2009

Note: This is a technical report originally produced for US NTA on June 5, 2002.

Abstract WP09-07

Lee, Ronald. 2009. Population aging, intergenerational transfers, and economic growth: Latin America in a global context. Paper prepared for the Expert Group Meeting on Population Ageing, Intergenerational Transfers and Social Protection, CELADE/ECLAC/DESA, Santiago, Chile, October 20-21, 2009. L2009

Abstract WP09-06

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason. 2009. New perspectives from National Transfer Accounts for national fiscal policy, social programs, and family transfers. Paper prepared for the Expert Group Meeting on Population Ageing, Intergenerational Transfers and Social Protection, Santiago, Chile, 20-21 October 2009. LM2009c

Abstract WP09-05

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason. 2009. Generational economics in a changing world. Abstract and download LM2009b

Abstract WP09-04

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason. 2009. Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging.

Abstract and download LM2009

Abstract WP09-03

Bravo, Jorge, and Mauricio Holz. National Transfer Accounts: Concepts and some examples from Latin America and Asia. BM2009

Abstract WP09-02

Kluge, Fanny Annemarrie. 2009. Transfer, consumption and income over the life cycle in Germany. K2009

Abstract WP09-01

2008 Working Papers


Stéphane Zuber, Antoine Bommier, Jérôme Bourdieu, Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann. "Le développement des transferts publics d’éducation et d’assurance vieillesse par génération en France : 1850-2000". ZBBS 2008

Abstract WP08-11
WP08-10 Abstract WP08-10

Naohiro Ogawa, Andrew Mason, Amonthep Chawla, and Rikiya Matsukura (2008) "Japan’s Unprecedented Aging and Changing Intergenerational Transfers" presented at the NBER-TCER-KDI conference on “The Demographic Transition in the Pacific Rim”, June 19-21, Seoul, Korea OMCM 2008

Abstract WP08-09

J.M. Ian Salas and Rachel Racelis. Consumption, Income, and Intergenerational Reallocation of Resources: Application of NTA in the Philippines, 1999. SR2008

Abstract WP08-08

Rachel Racelis and J.M. Ian Salas. Have Lifecycle Consumption and Income Patterns in the Philippines Changed between 1994 and 2002? RS2008b

Abstract WP08-07

Rachel Racelis and J.M. Ian Salas. A Note on Defining the Dependent Population Based on Age. RS2008a

Abstract WP08-06

Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, and Sang-Hyop Lee, “Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim”, This paper was prepared for the East Asian Seminar on Economics (EASE), held in Seoul, Korea, June 19-21, 2008. WP08-05.

Abstract WP08-05

Andrew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Ronald Lee, 2008 forthcoming "Will Demographic Change Undermine Asia's Growth Prospects", Emerging Asian Regionalism: Ten Years after the Crisis. Asian Development Bank (December).

An earlier version of this paper was titled “Asian Demographic Change: Its Economic and Social Implications”, WP08-04.

Abstract WP08-04

Andrew Mason, "Sustainable Economic Policies in an Aging World," Shanghai Forum 2008, Fudan University, Shanghai, May 25-27, 2008. wp08-03

Abstract WP08-03

Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason, "Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition" Presented to the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, April 2008. Presented at the Conference on the Economic Consequences of Low Fertility, World Demographic Association, University of St. Gallen, St. Gallen, Switzerland, April 10-12, 2008. Revised February 2, 2009. WP08-02

Abstract WP08-02
WP08-01* Abstract WP08-01

2007 Working Papers

WP07-08* Abstract WP07-08

Rachel Racelis and J.M. Ian Salas. Measuring Economic Lifecycle and Flows across Population Age Groups: Data and Methods in the Application of the NTA in the Philippines. RS2007

Abstract WP07-07
WP07-06* Abstract WP07-06
WP07-05* Abstract WP07-05
WP07-04* Abstract WP07-04
WP07-03* Abstract WP07-03
WP07-02* Abstract WP07-02
WP07-01* Abstract WP07-01

2006 Working Papers

WP06-11 Abstract WP06-11

Andrew Mason, “Demographic Dividends and Public Policy,” Asia-Pacific Population Journal 21(3): 7-16.

Earlier version as working paper: M2006

Abstract WP06-10
WP06-09 Abstract WP06-09

Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason, 2006. "What is the Demographic Dividend?" Finance and Development (September) 16-17. LM2006

 Same paper in different languages:
 "Les dividendes de l’évolution démographique" LM2006_French
 "¿Cuál es el dividendo demográfico?" LM2006_Spanish
 "Что такое демографический дивиденд?" LM2006_Russian
Abstract WP06-08
WP06-07 Abstract WP06-07
WP06-06 Abstract WP06-06

Andrew Mason and Ronald Lee. 2006. "Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend." GENUS LXII(2): 11-35.

Earlier version as working paper: ML2006b

Abstract WP06-05
WP06-04 Abstract WP06-04

Tomoko Kinugasa and Andrew Mason. forthcoming. "Why Nations Become Wealthy: The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving" World Development 35(1): 1-23.

Earlier version as working paper: KM2006

Abstract WP06-03
WP06-02* Abstract WP06-02

Andrew Mason and Ronald Lee, 2006. Transfers, Capital, and Consumption over the Demographic Transition, in Robert Clark, Andrew Mason, and Naohiroo Ogawa (eds.) Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, Pp. 128-162. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.

Earlier version as working paper and paper presented at the Conference on Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, Nihon University Population Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan, June 26-28, 2006: ML2006a

Supplementary materials

Abstract WP06-01

*Not yet available to the public.

2005 Working Papers


Ronald Lee, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Andrew Mason. Charting the Economic Life-Cycle, November 2005. Revised December 2006. Revised August 2007. LLM2005

Abstract WP05-08

Andrew Mason. Demographic Dividends: The Past, the Present, and the Future. Joint International Conference of The 21st Century COE (Center of Excellence) Program of Kobe University and the Japan Economic Policy Association (JEPA), Awaji Yumebutai International Conference Center near Kobe, Japan, December 17-18, 2005. M2005a

Abstract WP05-07

Andrew Mason. Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developed and Developing Countries. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, Mexico City, August 31 - September 2, 2005 M2005

Abstract WP05-06

Jorge Bravo. Intergenerational transfers and social protection in Latin America. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, Mexico City, August 31 - September 2, 2005 B2005

Abstract WP05-05

Naohiro Ogawa and Rikiya Matsukura. The Role of Older Persons' Changing Health and Wealth in an Aging Society: The Case of Japan. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, Mexico City, August 31 - September 2, 2005 OM2005

Abstract WP05-04

Cassio Turra and Bernardo Queiroz. Before it's too late: Demographic Transition, Labor Supply and Social Security Problems in Brazil. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, Mexico City, August 31 - September 2, 2005 TQ2005b

Abstract WP05-03

Cassio Turra and Bernardo Queiroz. Intergenerational Transfers and Socioeconomic Inequality in Brazil: a first look. Taller sobre Transformaciones Demograficas, Transferencias Intergeneracionales y Proteccion Social en America Latina, Santiago, Chile, July 6-7, 2005. TQ2005a

Abstract WP05-02

Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, An-Chi Tung, Mun-Sim Lai, and Tim Miller, 2009. Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts, Developments in the Economics of Aging'', David Wise, ed. (National Bureau of Economic Research: University of Chicago Press)89-122.

Revised March 2010.


Abstract WP05-01

2004 Working Papers


Maliki. Estimation of Intergenerational Education Transfers in Indonesia, December 2004. M2004

Abstract WP04-05

Team. An Overview of National Transfers Accounts, December 2004. NTA2004

Abstract WP04-04

Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Sang-Hyop Lee, Individual Earnings and Consumption Profiles: What do we Know? Symposium on Population Aging and Economic Productivity, Vienna Institute of Demography, December, 2004. LML2004

Abstract WP04-03

Antoine Bommier, Ronald Lee, Timothy Miller, and Stephane Zuber, Who wins and who loses? Public transfer accounts for US generations born 1850 to 2090, December 2004. BLMZ2004

Note: To be published in Population and Development Review, March 2010. A spreadsheet with the charts and tables of the plotted data is available here: BLMZ2004_Charts. Explanations of the construction and interpretation of these data and charts are given in the article. Please cite the Population and Development Review article if you use these data.

Abstract WP04-02

Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason, A Research Plan for the Macroeconomic Demography of Intergenerational Transfers, January 2004. LM2004

Abstract WP04-01

Working papers are authored by NTA project members. Appropriate subject matter includes conceptual issues related to NTA, methodological issues related to NTA, and applications of NTA. Although the expectation is that Working Papers will eventually be published, preliminary drafts of papers are welcome. Note that drafts are easily updated. Only the most recent draft should be included in the Working Papers series.

Team members should upload working papers using the next available Working Paper number and following the format used for the Working Papers webpage. The filename should use the initials of the authors and the year and a, b, c, . . . to distinguish it from other documents in the database.

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